Цены на алюминий резко выросли в Лондоне за ночь, поскольку США рассматривают возможность введения санкций против российской алюминиевой продукции. Хотя Шанхайский алюминий растет внутри дня, но отстает от LAL. Разница между “внешняя прочность и средняя прочность” явно увеличивает разницу между внутренним и внешним рынком алюминия. Так, Запрет Русала на внутреннем и внешнем рынках алюминия окажет какое влияние?

В контексте текущего энергетического кризиса в Европе и хрупкости цепочки зарубежной алюминиевой промышленности и цепочки поставок, после введения санкций, дефицит предложения на зарубежном рынке алюминия будет сложно восполнить, и и без того хрупкий рынок может быть еще больше подорван. На внутреннем фронте, спрос и предложение на внутреннем рынке алюминия относительно более гибкие, а влияние относительно ограничено. Ссылаясь на влияние аномальных колебаний цен на никель, analysts suggest that domestic enterprises still need to pay attention to the risk of price fluctuations.

The domestic aluminum market is highly resilient.

So will Rusal’s ban affect the domestic market? Based on the “relative independence” of domestic aluminum market supply and demand, Rusal’s ban may not have an obvious impact on domestic aluminum prices.

Направление изгиба должно быть перпендикулярно направлению волокон алюминиевой пластины., from the market’s previous concerns about Rusal’s large inflow into China, Shanghai Nonferrous Network (SMM) analysis pointed out that domestic electrolytic aluminum will gradually resume production in 2022, and the import window will be closed. Although Russia has always been an important importer of domestic aluminum ingot, with the addition of domestic operating capacity, the domestic self-sufficiency rate is high, the aluminum price is weak inside and strong outside and the import of aluminum ingot continues to suffer losses, so it is unlikely that Russian aluminum will flow into China in large quantities. Imports will remain small in the fourth quarter.

Второй, from the perspective of the domestic aluminum market pattern, Fan Rui told Xinhua Finance that China itself is the world’s largest aluminum supplier, the domestic exchange is relatively stable, and there is enough buffer capacity to deal with market risks.

“The domestic non-ferrous metal supply and demand are more elastic and elastic, especially the non-ferrous metal aluminum due to the tax issue of the internal and external link is weak, so the LME aluminum boom did not cause too much to promote Shanghai aluminum futures. тем не мение, given the threat of the local epidemic and domestic energy supply, some non-ferrous production enterprises are facing production cuts, cost increases, and order delivery difficulties, and the domestic aluminum market inventory is also at a historic low. Investors should plan for possible changes to non-ferrous metal contracts for delivery in October and November. It is suggested to do a good job in capital management and risk control.